Showing posts with label Inventory. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Inventory. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Inventory Collaboration: Why Commercial Airlines are struggling to make it happen?

Commercial airlines in US are holding some of the most expensive MRO items in their balance sheet. From high-speed turbines to impellers, high-speed bearings, landing gears and other mechanical devices, the total inventory by some estimate was more than $250b in US alone in year 2000. Since there are very few OEM's who manufacturer these aircraft components, the inventories are mostly the same items. For example engines are mostly built by GE, Pratt-Whitney, Rolce-Royce or sometimes Bombardier. Moreover these spares are often located in same cities like Chicago, New York etc. which happens to be the hubs of the major airlines. One of the most obvious approach to reduce the inventory of these common parts in co-located hubs is to collaborate and pool these items. The benefits of reduced working capital and higher service level is rather obvious. The question is why it is not happening! Several attempts in the past, particularly in Europe to pool the inventory even among airlines-alliance partners did not materialize! If the investment in working capital is so huge and benefits are a no-brainer, than why airlines are struggling to make this happen?

This problem has been studied extensively in the past, both by academics and by practitioners. One of the most common causes was the poor relationship between the competing airlines due to fierce competition among the large players such as American and United in Chicago or United and Delta in Denver. Consequently they are reluctant to share their operational data, particularly in the absence of any third party MRO service provider which can potentially stock and distribute these items from a central warehouse. 

Here I want to bring two other operational issues which I think are very important and must be addressed in order for the collaboration to see the day-light. I would illustrate my point here using a very simple example. 

Let us consider we have only 3 airlines United, American and Delta operating in Chicago's O'hare and they are planning to collaborate on a Honeywell made 'landing gear'. Suppose the existing number of spares for the 3 airlines are 100, 60 and 40 respectively. When these 3 parties approached a consultant, he studied the demand variability and came up with a pooled inventory of 150 (Present inventory is 100+60+40 = 200) at a single warehouse to support the combined demand while ensuring the minimum prescribed service level. Now the question is how do we allocate this 150 among the 3 players. The simplest approach is to go for a proportional allocation. The existing numbers are in the ratio of 100:60:40 (i.e. 5:3:2); hence the new numbers can also be split in the same ratio. Hence each airlines would now pay for 75, 45 and 30 units respectively. However this does not make any sense! The smallest airlines (in this case the one with 40 units originally) is going to have 150  units potentiall available for use, a significantly large number to boost it's service level really high. However for the largest airlines, the benefits in service level (when inventory jumps from 100 earlier to 150 now) is not that high. Hence this allocation mechanism does not make sense and provides very little incentive for the largest incumbent to participate.   

Another challenge would arise when the inventory for some reason drops to say only 1 unit and right at that time 2 different airlines have the demand for that item. Now how to determine who should get the access to this last unit!

I strongly believe that unless these seemingly simple but fundamental challenges in designing a fair and equitable allocation are addressed, inventory collaboration would be rather difficult. I would propose a possible solution to this issue in my next posting. 

Comments are welcome!
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Wednesday, February 6, 2008

What exactly is "Pull" type inventory planning?


It has been years since I read the notion of a 'Pull' type planning where a manufacturer do not  build any inventory and wait for a customer order to start its process. However it is also true that in several instances this is not possible, because customer is not going to wait through your lead time for the product to show up. What does this mean? Does it mean that the pull technique is ONLY applicable for a "make to order" environment! If this is the case, than even Toyota do not seem to be following it. One can visit any Toyota dealer in US to see several cars readily available for the customers. Does it mean that they do not practice what they preach? I had this question for years before I found the answer recently and here is how I see it now. 

It is important to bring a nice historical perspective to the Toyota story. As the story goes, manager's from Toyota came to US to learn about Auto industry. What they noticed in Ford did not exactly impressed them! However they were fascinated by a Wrigley grocery store where they would stock a few items in the isle based on historical consumption (aka actual demand) and replenish them whenever those isles are empty. The inventory were often minimal and based on exact demand. 

The management of inventory planning process at Wrigley happened to be the key motivator for Toyota. They created the pull based system by storing just a minimum inventory at each desired location. The amount was based not on any forecast, but on actual consumption of those items. The replenishment order was initiated not based on any pre-determined schedule, but on actual drop in inventory below the set level. This inventory was aptly called the "Supermarket" in the language of lean. As the inventory was pulled by customers, replenishment orders (Work order or Purchase order) were placed on the downstream suppliers. And this is how a pull based planning can be made functional even in a "make to stock" environment. 

So pulling does not mean a "make to stock" or a "make to order" planning; it means the ability to set the inventory based on actual demand (measured by historical consumption) and not on any forecast. It also means that the replenishment (production or purchase) is based not on any schedule, but on actual need for the inventory to support the demand. Forecast is no-longer used to guide the production process. 

But can it be true when future is very different from past!! If you have a very strong reason to believe that forecast is going to be true, than use it (instead) to set the inventory. This can happen when a customer indicates about a large order in advance. So inventory is usually set based on actual demand; however it can also be set at a higher/lower level when the planners have strong reason to believe that the forecast is going to be true!

Additionally, in order to take care of the uncertainty we add a "safety stock" component to the inventory. This is also calculated using the historical actual demand data.  


Comments are welcome!
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